Taiwan and the Window of Weakness in the Markets

This week will likely be lack of many updates on chronicle of the chilly climate.

However I would possibly possibly well need posts like this:

We’re for the time being on a 4-5 day “work” time out. Providend would customarily maintain a company retreat and if we can, this will likely per chance well also be in any other nation.

This three hundred and sixty five days, we’re having it in Taiwan.

Right here’s the assign we’re staying in sleepy Tamsui in Unusual Taiwan Metropolis.

Right here’s the survey from my hotel:

Tamsui is terribly removed from Taipei but I bet it’s the candy attach in conserving costs in check but peaceable a lovely cheap journey.

Taiwan right this moment is chilly.

Right here’s me at the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall. We ended our scavenger hunt right here. I was as soon as right here almost 15-16 years ago so it’s some distance a lovely nice talk over with.

I maintain been to Taiwan 3 cases, all earlier than 2007 and I will’t recall was as soon as the transit and educate network this established serve then, but I idea it’s particular nice taking time to switch around moderately than taking Uber and rushing right here and there.

Uber in Taipei is low-value but inter-city wise, the value isn’t if truth be told that low-value.

Meals in Taiwan, relative to Singapore is moderately value it. We introduce Max, our head of expat to Chinese language dishes. Many folk weren’t stale to a pair of of the meals in Taiwan, in particular those stuff with bamboo shoots.

Each of these meals that we ate was as soon as about 9-10 dishes.

I sat subsequent to our Head of Folks & Finance, and based mostly mostly on the meals coming, he wondered whether or not he celebrated the funds for the meals.

Meals on this instance costs S$45 per head.

I maintain received to thank our retreat committee for organizing this three hundred and sixty five days’s retreat. Ray (rightmost), heads the committee, along with two of our people Alvin (leftmost) and Mike (2nd from left). Right here’s double accountability except for their long-established work.

Ray turned a brand fresh cilent adviser at the launch up of the three hundred and sixty five days and has the accountability to scale up to be as solid as our senior client advisers. Alvin is fragment of our nascent Wealth group segment and Mike is one amongst our predominant insurance coverage specialist at Havend. There are sales targets to satisfy so its not so easy for them to double hat.

In my limited time going around Taiwan, I felt that Taiwan peaceable retains quite a bit of the “feel” earlier than 2010. The buildings are long-established, there weren’t signs of contemporary, fresh buildings.

The value of meals is a piece of more moderately priced but isn’t too removed from Singapore. Yet, the value of homes rivals that of Singapore HDB apartments, and appears to be like more trip down. To make matters worse, the median wage in Taiwan is closer to SG$1,000 a month.

Most can’t fetch the money for a residence, and maintain to rent or dwell with their family.

I bet right here is the identical as quite a bit of diversified places.

This morning we maintain the expiration of the VIX name alternatives, which occurs in total in the third week of the month.

Within the last quarter of last three hundred and sixty five days, we viewed a if truth be told bullish switch after the alternatives expiration in October, which coincides with dovish feedback by the FED.

On the total, there are constructive flows discontinuance of the three hundred and sixty five days from company buybacks, the favor to position leverage collateral serve to work, and shorter trading periods means it’s terribly conducive for the market to trip up, aided by vendor flows.

All these ends on January 17th 2024 at the VIX expiration, which is that this morning.

From now till 2nd of February, we maintain a window of weak point, which is a length that’s not supported by these sure flows to toughen the market.

If we peaceable maintain an overhang from a anxious macroeconomic train, the market would possibly possibly well switch down in a immediate time resulting from the shortage of toughen.

We’re seeing more and more inquire for mounted-strike volatility calls, extra and extra out, which indicates the cautious to bearish downside of market contributors.

These two months till mid-March would possibly possibly well even be wobbly.

This would per chance well per chance even be a trusty length for long-time-frame patrons so that you would possibly possibly add. For merchants, it’s some distance a length to be more cautious.

Whether we rob a stair-step down or a fall is reckoning on whether or not there are catalysts that aren’t priced into the market and whether or not there are supportive flows.

In my realizing, I gather that because more and more of this data is assign out, the market entrance runs this data to a sure extent as the market contributors tries to situation themselves earlier than these periods.

This would per chance well point out that the extent of create of these flows is terribly great dampened.

I haven’t checked my strategic systematic portfolio at all this week but given how small-cap value and non-market cap weighted indexes maintain been doing, I understand it’s not doing too successfully.

I am going to be cycling in Taiwan subsequent week.

Allow us to survey if I am going to peaceable maintain the vitality to jot down.

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